![]() Presidential Elections.) Map 1: 1996 Electoral College resultsīill Clinton’s second victory produced both a popular vote (8.5 points) and Electoral College (220) margin bigger than any we have seen in either category since. (Our source for all results is Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Let’s take a quick visual tour through the Electoral College from 1996 to 2020 to see how things have changed. The current alignment of the Electoral College has arguably been in effect since 2000, in that there were several changes going from the 1996 to 2000 elections that have endured even as the respective party coalitions have evolved in subsequent elections. There have been 42 presidential elections since then, and 16 of them have been decided by less than 5 points in the popular vote. These 2 eras really stand out for competitiveness, because they account for so many of the close presidential elections since 1856. This does not quite match the 6 elections between 1876-1896, when every election had a margin of under 5 points, but it’s close. Since 2000, the popular vote margin has been less than 5 points in 5 of the 6 elections, with only 2008 as an exception. Republicans won a pair of presidential elections (20) despite not winning the popular vote - 2 other such “misfires” happened in the late 1800s (18), the last time period where there have been many relatively close presidential elections in a row. While some elections in that timeframe - 1988, 1996, and 2008 - were still decisive victories for one side or the other, there have been some true nail-biters, with 2000 as the closest in terms of the Electoral College vote and the winning margin in the decisive state (just 537 votes out of nearly 6 million cast in Florida). Republicans, which dates back to just before the Civil War). That is the longest streak in the history of the current 2-party system (Democrats vs. The United States has now had 9 presidential elections in a row (beginning in 1988) where neither side has won by a double-digit margin in the popular vote. But in an era defined by competitive elections, good luck guessing when that next will occur. A brief recent history of the Electoral CollegeĪt some point, either the Democrats or Republicans are going to win a true blowout in the Electoral College (and popular vote). The most competitive states in 2020 may be the most competitive in 2024: Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin in the Great Lakes region and Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina in the Sun Belt. Relative to the nation, much of the West has become more Democratic over the past 2 decades, along with some other pockets of the country, while many states in the Northeast, Midwest, and Greater South have become more Republican. Many of the states have been consistent in their presidential voting since 2000, although there have been key shifts that have altered the roster of most competitive swing states. In the 6 elections this century, the popular vote margin has been less than 5 points in all but 1 of them. The United States is in an extremely competitive era of presidential elections. If you cannot join us live, we will release the Spaces as an episode of our “Politics is Everything” podcast. They will be wrapping up the best and worst moments from politics in 2022, and listeners will also get the chance to answer trivia questions and win some Center for Politics swag. Miles Coleman, and Carah Ong Whaley for a Twitter Spaces at 2 p.m. ![]() Dear Readers: Join the Crystal Ball’s Kyle Kondik, J.
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |